The United States is on track to see its national debt exceed $38 trillion by the end of 2025, according to forecasts from top institutions and active prediction markets. Bloomberg and Reuters both cite mounting fiscal deficits and soaring interest costs as key drivers, while decentralized platforms like Polymarket show a 93% chance of this milestone being reached.
Debt load grows under high rates and spending
Bloomberg recently projected that US debt could surpass $38 trillion by December 2025, fueled by steady federal spending and the burden of higher interest payments due to persistent Federal Reserve rate levels. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) echoed this trend, updating its forecast to $37.8 trillion, with potential to breach the $38 trillion mark if additional budget packages pass.
The Wall Street Journal highlighted a notable uptick in US credit default swaps, up 15% this year, reflecting bond market concern over America’s rising leverage.
Traders bet on $38T outcome with near certainty
Meanwhile, the crypto prediction platform Polymarket has attracted over $555,000 in volume on whether US national debt will top $38 trillion. The latest odds stand at 93%, up 6% this month alone, signaling near-total consensus among decentralized speculators.
CNN Business covered the surge in bets, framing it as both a warning and a barometer of investor sentiment about US fiscal discipline.
What it means for markets
As the debt figure climbs, analysts warn of long-term consequences for Treasury yields, dollar stability, and broader global capital flows. While no immediate crisis looms, the pace of accumulation underscores structural risks that could shape policy debates into the 2026 election cycle and beyond.
