JPMorgan has sharply revised down long-term forecasts for the stablecoin market, predicting it will reach around $500 billion by 2028. This is well below earlier trillion-dollar projections from peers like Standard Chartered and Bernstein.
Most demand still tied to crypto markets
According to JPMorgan’s latest research, nearly 88% of stablecoin activity remains anchored in crypto-native uses, such as trading on exchanges, providing liquidity in DeFi, and serving as collateral. Payment applications account for just $15 billion, roughly 6% of total stablecoin demand.
This reveals a stark gap between the hopes for mass payment adoption and the reality that stablecoins are mostly tools for crypto insiders.
Key barriers limit mainstream adoption
The report outlines why stablecoins are unlikely to replace traditional currencies anytime soon:
- No yield advantage over bank deposits, especially when interest rates are elevated.
- Fragmented global regulation, creating uncertainty for businesses and consumers.
- Narrow practical use cases outside crypto trading and DeFi.
In contrast, traditional financial systems continue to offer a broad range of payment, credit, and yield-bearing instruments that stablecoins struggle to match.
Market split on future growth
This cautious outlook diverges sharply from other institutions. Standard Chartered recently projected stablecoins could hit $2 trillion by 2028, while Bernstein sees potential for a $4 trillion market within the decade. JPMorgan’s estimate cuts that enthusiasm by more than half, signaling that it views the path to mass adoption as far more complex and uncertain.
