JPMorgan has initiated coverage on Circle Internet Group (CRCL) with an underweight rating and a price target of $80 by December 2026, signaling a potential downside of more than 55% from current levels.
Analyst Kenneth Worthington highlighted that while Circle holds a strong early position with USD Coin (USDC) and robust infrastructure, its market valuation above $44 billion looks stretched. The target price was based on a 45x multiple on projected 2027 earnings, already factoring in a modest safety cushion.
Key risks cited include the rapid rise of competition, with other stablecoin issuers, tokenized accounts, and digital money market products all fighting for the same space. Regulatory uncertainty is also in play, as upcoming US stablecoin rules could require issuers to hold more equity capital, potentially slowing USDC’s growth.
Another concern is the global momentum of CBDCs (central bank digital currencies), which could squeeze out private stablecoins like USDC as countries develop their own digital money systems.
Even so, the JPMorgan note praised Circle’s management team and its technology reach, while making it clear that the biggest worry right now is the market’s high expectations.
Circle went public in early June with an IPO at $31, soaring nearly 850% intraday to $299 before pulling back to around $180. Since its debut, the stock has gained roughly 161%.
Other banks have mixed views: Goldman Sachs is neutral at $83, Bernstein is more bullish at $230, and Deutsche Bank holds a $155 target, recognizing Circle’s potential but stressing the sector’s heavy volatility.
Markets will keep a close eye on regulatory developments, CBDC initiatives, and how competitors position themselves to capture pieces of the evolving digital payments landscape.
