Fed rate cut odds have shifted on prediction markets, with crypto platform Polymarket showing just a 57% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at its September meeting.
The latest data signals a cooling of expectations compared to earlier this summer, when traders priced in odds above 70% and even 80% for a policy cut. According to Polymarket’s dashboard, markets currently see:
- 57% chance of a 25 bps cut
- 40% chance of no change
- 2% chance of a 50+ bps cut
- Less than 1% chance of a hike
Traders reassess policy path
The shift reflects growing uncertainty around incoming inflation and labor market data, which have softened the case for aggressive easing. While investors still expect the Fed to move toward a more dovish stance, the probability gap has narrowed, leaving room for volatility in bonds, equities and crypto markets.
Impact on crypto sentiment
For crypto traders, prediction platforms like Polymarket provide real-time insight into macro expectations. A confirmed cut in September could trigger bullish momentum in risk assets, while a hold may pressure Bitcoin and Ethereum in the short term.
As the September 17 FOMC decision approaches, all eyes remain on Jerome Powell’s signals in speeches and official releases.
Source: Polymarket – Fed Rates Dashboard
