Solana (SOL) appears poised for a potential long-term rally toward $260, but several critical factors must align before this bullish scenario unfolds.
Market sentiment shifts as SOL rebounds
SOL has surged nearly 28% over the past three weeks, weakening the grip of bearish traders. Despite this recovery, institutional whales and market makers remain cautious, with no significant new positions detected in derivatives or spot accumulation.
The perpetual futures funding rate is hovering around 16% annualized, which reflects moderate bullish sentiment without signs of excessive leverage. This indicates that the market is optimistic but not yet in a euphoric phase.
On-chain metrics still lagging
While network activity has improved slightly, it still trails far behind January levels. Fees collected on the Solana blockchain jumped 27%, generating over $32.9 million in the last 30 days, but this is still modest compared to Ethereum.
Solana’s Total Value Locked (TVL) remains around $12 billion, far below Ethereum’s $91 billion. This signals that although Solana is growing, it still has a long way to go in attracting DeFi and institutional capital.
Futures suggest consolidation, not a breakout yet
The 3-month futures premium is currently around 6%, which is considered neutral. This suggests that while bearish pressure has subsided, the market is still waiting for confirmation before entering a full-blown uptrend.
Analysts suggest that a brief correction to $105 is still possible, especially if a bear trap plays out. However, if SOL holds support above $180, it could build momentum for another leg up toward $260.
ETF speculation boosts long-term outlook
One of the most powerful catalysts ahead could be the approval of a Solana spot ETF in the United States. BlackRock’s ETF (SSK) launched on July 2 and structured under the 1940 Investment Company Act has already attracted $130 million in AUM without requiring an S-1 filing.
ETF approval would open the floodgates for institutional investment in SOL, similar to what Bitcoin experienced earlier in 2024.
What Solana needs to hit $260
- Renewed whale activity Institutional capital needs to re-enter the market with confidence.
- On-chain utility surge Increased usage in DeFi, gaming, or NFTs could close the gap with Ethereum.
- Regulatory green light Spot ETF approval is a potential game-changer.
Solana’s technical structure and improving sentiment suggest that a rally to $260 is within reach but not guaranteed. The market remains cautious, and broader macro conditions or regulatory delays could stall the climb. Still, if catalysts align, Solana may be on the verge of its next major breakout.
Source: Cointelegraph Brasil, The Coin Republic, DeFiLlama, CoinMarketCap
